The Euro 2008 draw is out and once again we have a Group of Death in a soccer tournament. Unfortunately, future Major League Soccer expansion will be just as much of a life-or-death challenge for a NYC FC.

The competition is fierce and well supported with fans and resources. In all likelihood, to enter the MLS a New York franchise will have to compete with at least Philadelphia, St. Louis, Portland and possibly Vancouver.

Philadelphia and St. Louis seem to be fighting right now for the 16th spot in the league. Both deserve their opportunity. Philadelphia has a large supporter group, The Sons of Ben, and the city seems ready to move on construction of a new soccer stadium. St. Louis has traditionally been a hotbed for American soccer (i.e. great fanbase), but the potential buyer might not have the clout of other MLS ownership groups.

Portland and Vancouver are viable candidates in the next round of expansion when the MLS is likely to go from 16 to 18. They already have great fan support for their USL1 franchises and would be a great rival in a derby with new MLS franchise Seattle. Since they are West Coast cities it is likely only one would make it (the MLS is currently stacked on that side of the US).

Where does that leave New York? If things do not change we’re out of luck from for this round, but have a great chance in the expansion to an 18-team league. Likely, NYC FC will have to compete against a bid from either the Philly-St. Louis loser. Portland and Vancouver will via for the the Western opening. It looks so easy, but a lot of things can happen in two years. Maybe it is time to show some New Yorker resiliency.

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